Impact of Electricity Price Expectation in the Planning Period on the Evolution of Generation Expansion Planning in the Market Environment

With the continuous promotion of China’s electricity market reform, introduction competition in power generation provides a new research direction for expansion planning (GEP) problem, which is great significance optimization energy structure. In context marketization, price expectation during period key factor GEP independent groups. There some literature showing that can be estimated according to certain laws supply and demand, while it seems us future Pay as Bid (PAB) mechanism better determine expectation. this paper, explore impact these two different formation mechanisms on evolution market, multi-agent framework first established describe interaction process among agents; then, model groups developed environment, four representative scenarios are finally designed detailed comparative studies. Based case studies, conclusion summarized as: (1) PAB bidding has lower higher installed capacity almost all time whole scenarios; (2) more important reduce parameter uncertainty obtain reliable reasonable results regarding long-term market.